Establishment and validation of a risk prediction model in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma treated with transarterial radioembolization
- Authors
- Lee, Jae Seung; Lee, Han Ah; Jeon, Mi Young; Lim, Tae Seop; Kim, Beom Kyung; Park, Jun Yong; Kim, Young; Ahn, Sang Hoon; Um, Soon Ho; Han, Kwang-Hyub; Seo, Yeon Seok; Kim, Seung Up
- Issue Date
- Jun-2020
- Publisher
- Lippincott Williams & Wilkins Ltd.
- Keywords
- chemoradiotherapy; hepatocellular carcinoma; mortality; proportional hazards models; radiotherapy; risk assessment; risk factors; survival; therapeutic embolization
- Citation
- European Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, v.32, no.6, pp 739 - 747
- Pages
- 9
- Indexed
- SCIE
SCOPUS
- Journal Title
- European Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology
- Volume
- 32
- Number
- 6
- Start Page
- 739
- End Page
- 747
- URI
- https://scholarworks.korea.ac.kr/kumedicine/handle/2020.sw.kumedicine/28083
- DOI
- 10.1097/MEG.0000000000001585
- ISSN
- 0954-691X
1473-5687
- Abstract
- Background/aims Few studies have reported the treatment outcomes of transarterial radioembolization (TARE) using yttrium-90 (Y-90) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We established and validated a new risk prediction model for patients with HCC treated with TARE. Methods Between 2010 and 2017, 113 and 35 patients with intrahepatic HCC treated with TARE were selected for the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The modified response evaluation criteria in solid tumors (mRECIST) were used for response evaluation. Results In the training cohort, the median age was 64.1 years (92 males and 21 females) and the mean survival after TARE was 50.3 months. The cumulative survival rates at six and 12 months were 92.0 and 84.0%, respectively. A new risk prediction model for patients with HCC treated with TARE (Y-scoring system) was established from the training cohort using five independent baseline variables [serum albumin < 3.5 g/dL, hazard ratio = 5.446; alpha-fetoprotein > 200 ng/mL (hazard ratio = 5.071); tumor number >= 3 (hazard ratio = 2.933); portal vein thrombosis (hazard ratio = 4.915); and hepatic vein invasion (hazard ratio = 8.500)] and two on-treatment variables [no des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin response (hazard ratio = 15.346) and progressive disease at three months (hazard ratio = 4.154)] for mortality (all P < 0.05). The predictive accuracy of the Y-scoring system was acceptable to predict six [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.845], nine (AUC = 0.868), and 12-month mortality (AUC = 0.886) (all P < 0.05). The predictive accuracy of the system was similarly maintained in the validation cohort (AUC 0.737-0.901 at 6-12 months). Conclusion Our new risk prediction model can be used to stratify different prognoses in patients with HCC treated with TARE. Validation studies are required.
- Files in This Item
- There are no files associated with this item.
- Appears in
Collections - 2. Clinical Science > Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology > 1. Journal Articles
Items in ScholarWorks are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.