Risk Factors for Dropout From the Liver Transplant Waiting List of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients Under Locoregional Treatment

Abstract

Background In new organ allocation policy, patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) experience a 6-month delay in being granted Model for End-Stage Liver Disease exception points. However, it may not be fair for patients at risk of early progression of HCC.

Methods All patients who were diagnosed as United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) stage 1 or 2 of HCC between January 2004 and December 2012 were included. Patients who received surgical resection or liver transplant (LT) as a primary treatment and who did not receive any treatment for HCC were excluded. Patients with baseline Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score ≥22 were also excluded because they have a higher chance of receiving LT. Patients who developed extrahepatic progression within 1 year were considered as high-risk for early recurrence after LT.

Results A total of 586 patients were included. Mean (SD) age was 59.9 (10.3) years and 409 patients (69.8%) were men. The cumulative incidence of estimated dropout was 8.9% at 6 months; size of the maximum nodule (≥3 cm) and nonachievement of complete response were independent factors. Extrahepatic progression developed in 16 patients (2.7%) within 1 year; size of the maximum nodule (4 cm) and alpha-fetoprotein level (>100 ng/mL) were independent predictors.

Conclusions The estimated dropout rate from the waiting list within 6 months was 8.9%. Advantage points might be needed for patients with maximum nodule size ≥3 cm or those with noncomplete response. However, in patients with maximum nodule size ≥4 cm or alpha-fetoprotein level >100 ng/mL, caution is needed.