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Risk score model for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma in treatment-naive patients receiving oral antiviral treatment for chronic hepatitis Bopen access

Authors
Sohn, WonCho, Ju-YeonKim, Ji HoonLee, Jung IlKim, Hyung JoonWoo, Min-AhJung, Sin-HoPaik, Yong-Han
Issue Date
Jun-2017
Publisher
KOREAN ASSOC STUDY LIVER
Keywords
Chronic hepatitis B; Hepatocellular carcinoma; Assessment, Risk; Antiviral drugs
Citation
CLINICAL AND MOLECULAR HEPATOLOGY, v.23, no.2, pp.170 - 178
Indexed
SCOPUS
KCI
Journal Title
CLINICAL AND MOLECULAR HEPATOLOGY
Volume
23
Number
2
Start Page
170
End Page
178
URI
https://scholarworks.korea.ac.kr/kumedicine/handle/2020.sw.kumedicine/4965
DOI
10.3350/cmh.2016.0086
ISSN
2287-2728
Abstract
Background/Aims: This study aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in treatment-naive patients receiving oral antiviral treatment for chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Methods: We investigated 2,061 Korean treatment-naive patients with CHB treated with entecavir as an initial therapy. A risk score model for HCC development was developed based on multivariable Cox regression model in a single center (n=990) and was validated using the time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) in three other centers (n=1,071). The difference of HCC development among risk groups (low, intermediate, and high) categorized by risk score was also investigated. Results: The cumulative incidence rates of HCC at 5 years were 11.2% and 8.9% in the testing and validation cohorts, respectively. HCC-Risk Estimating Score in CHB patients Under Entecavir (HCC-RESCUE) is formulated as (age+15xgender [female=0/male=1]+23xcirrhosis [absence=0/presence=1]). The AUROCs at 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years were 0.82, 0.81, and 0.81, respectively, in the validation cohort. A significant difference of HCC development in each risk group was determined by the 5-year HCC risk score in the validation cohort (low risk group, 2.1%; intermediate risk group, 9.3%; high risk group, 41.2%, p<0.001). Conclusions: The study presents a new risk score model with a good ability to predict HCC development and determine high risk patients for HCC development consisting of readily available clinical factors in treatment-naive CHB patients receiving entecavir.
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구로병원 (Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Guro Hospital)
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