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Cited 7 time in webofscience Cited 5 time in scopus
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Addition of liver stiffness enhances the predictive accuracy of the PAGE-B model for hepatitis B-related hepatocellular carcinoma

Authors
Chon, Hye YeonLee, Han AhSuh, Sang JunLee, Jung IlKim, Byung SeokKim, In HeeLee, Chang HyeongJang, Byoung KukLee, Hyun WoongHwang, Jae SeokLee, Chang HunLee, Jin-WooYu, Jung HwanSeo, Yeon SeokYim, Hyung JoonKim, Seung Up
Issue Date
Apr-2021
Publisher
WILEY
Citation
ALIMENTARY PHARMACOLOGY & THERAPEUTICS, v.53, no.8, pp.919 - 927
Indexed
SCIE
SCOPUS
Journal Title
ALIMENTARY PHARMACOLOGY & THERAPEUTICS
Volume
53
Number
8
Start Page
919
End Page
927
URI
https://scholarworks.korea.ac.kr/kumedicine/handle/2020.sw.kumedicine/51223
DOI
10.1111/apt.16267
ISSN
0269-2813
Abstract
Background: The modified PAGE-B (mPAGE-B) and PAGE-B models reliably predict the risk of developing chronic hepatitis B (CHB)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Aim(s): To investigate whether the addition of liver stiffness (LS) value, assessed using transient elastography, enhanced the predictive accuracies of these models Methods: Patients with CHB who started anti-viral therapy (AVT) between 2007 and 2017 were enrolled. The training (Yonsei University Hospital) and validation (seven Korean referral institutes) cohorts contained 1211 and 973 patients, respectively. Results: Based on multivariate analysis, older age (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.051, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.031-1.071), male sex (HR = 2.265, 95% CI = 1.463-3.506), lower platelet count (HR = 0.993, 95% CI = 0.989-0.997) and greater LS values (HR = 1.015, 95% CI = 1.002-1.028) were independently associated with an increased risk of HCC development (all P < 0.05). Thus, we developed a modified PAGE(LS)-B model (maximum score 34) that included age, male sex, platelet count and LS value. The integrated area under the curve of the modified PAGE(LS) model was greater than those of the PAGE-B and mPAGE-B models (0.760 vs 0.714 and 0.716, respectively) in the derivation dataset. The cumulative HCC incidence was significantly higher in the high-risk (modified PAGE-B-LS score >= 24) group than in the intermediate-risk (modified PAGE(LS)-B score 12-24) or low-risk (modified PAGE(LS)-B score < 12) group (all P < 0.001). Similar results were observed in the validation cohort. Conclusions: The predictive accuracies of the PAGE-B and mPAGE-B models were validated in Korean patients with CHB receiving AVT. However, the modified PAGE(LS)-B model featuring the addition of LS value showed higher predictability than the PAGE-B and mPAGE-B models.
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Seo, Yeon Seok
Anam Hospital (Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Anam Hospital)
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