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Modeling Incorporating the Severity-Reducing Long-term Immunity: Higher Viral Transmission Paradoxically Reduces Severe COVID-19 During Endemic Transition

Authors
Hong, HyukpyoNoh, Ji YunLee, HyojungChoi, SunhwaChoi, BoseungKim, Jae KyoungShin, Eui-Cheol
Issue Date
Jun-2022
Publisher
대한면역학회
Keywords
COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; Immunity; Severity; Endemic transition
Citation
Immune Network, v.22, no.3, pp 1 - 12
Pages
12
Indexed
SCIE
SCOPUS
Journal Title
Immune Network
Volume
22
Number
3
Start Page
1
End Page
12
URI
https://scholarworks.korea.ac.kr/kumedicine/handle/2021.sw.kumedicine/61224
DOI
10.4110/in.2022.22.e23
ISSN
1598-2629
2092-6685
Abstract
Natural infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 or vaccination induces virus-specific immunity protecting hosts from infection and severe disease. While the infection-preventing immunity gradually declines, the severity-reducing immunity is relatively well preserved. Here, based on the different longevity of these distinct immunities, we develop a mathematical model to estimate courses of endemic transition of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Our analysis demonstrates that high viral transmission unexpectedly reduces the rates of progression to severe COVID-19 during the course of endemic transition despite increased numbers of infection cases. Our study also shows that high viral transmission amongst populations with high vaccination coverages paradoxically accelerates the endemic transition of COVID-19 with reduced numbers of severe cases. These results provide critical insights for driving public health policies in the era of 'living with COVID-19.'
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Noh, Ji Yun
Guro Hospital (Department of Infectious Diseases, Guro Hospital)
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