Long-Term Prediction Model for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B Receiving Antiviral Therapy: Based on Data from Korean Patientsopen access
- Lee, Ji Hun; Shin, Seung Kak; Kang, Seong Hee; Kim, Tae Hyung; Yim, Hyung Joon; Yim, Sun Young; Lee, Young-Sun; Jung, Young Kul; Kim, Ji Hoon; Seo, Yeon Seok; Yeon, Jong Eun; Kwon, Oh Sang; Um, Soon Ho; Byun, Kwan Soo
- Issue Date
- MDPI AG
- antiviral agent; hepatitis B virus; hepatocellular carcinoma; liver cirrhosis; risk factors
- Journal of Clinical Medicine, v.11, no.22
- Journal Title
- Journal of Clinical Medicine
- Predicting the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a key clinical issue in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). The aim of this study was to develop a precise and simple HCC risk score for up to 10 years. A total of 1895 CHB patients treated with entecavir or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate were retrospectively recruited and randomized into derivation (n = 1239) and validation cohorts (n = 656). Variables proven to be independent risk factors for HCC in the derivation cohort were used to develop the prediction model. The ACCESS-HCC model included five variables (age, cirrhosis, consumption of ethanol, liver stiffness, and serum alanine aminotransferase). Areas under curves were 0.798, 0.762, and 0.883 for HCC risk at 3, 5, and 10 years, respectively, which were higher than those of other prediction models. The scores were categorized according to significantly different HCC incidences: 0-4, low; 5-8, intermediate; and 9-14, high-risk. The annual incidence rates were 0.5%, 3.2%, and 11.3%, respectively. The performance of this model was validated in an independent cohort. The ACCESS-HCC model shows improved long-term prediction and provides three distinct risk categories for HCC in CHB patients receiving antiviral therapy. Further research is needed for external validation using larger cohorts.
- Files in This Item
- There are no files associated with this item.
- Appears in
- 2. Clinical Science > Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology > 1. Journal Articles
Items in ScholarWorks are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.