Measuring the burden of disease due to climate change and developing a forecast model in South Korea

초록

Objectives: Climate change influences human health in various ways, and quantitative assessments of the effect of climate change on health at national level are becoming essential for environmental health management. Study design: This study quantified the burden of disease attributable to climate change in Korea using disability-adjusted life years (DALY), and projected how this would change over time. Methods: Diseases related to climate change in Korea were selected, and meteorological data for each risk factor of climate change were collected. Mortality was calculated, and a database of incidence and prevalence was established. After measuring the burden of each disease, the total burden of disease related to climate change was assessed by multiplying population-attributable fractions. Finally, an estimation model for the burden of disease was built based on Korean climate data. Results: The total burden of disease related to climate change in Korea was 6.85 DALY/1000 population in 2008. Cerebrovascular diseases induced by heat waves accounted for 72.1% of the total burden of disease (hypertensive disease 1.82 DALY/1000 population, ischaemic heart disease 1.56 DALY/1000 population, cerebrovascular disease 1.56 DALY/1000 population). According to the estimation model, the total burden of disease will be 11.48 DALY/1000 population in 2100, which is twice the total burden of disease in 2008. Conclusions: This study quantified the burden of disease caused by climate change in Korea, and provides valuable information for determining the priorities of environmental health policy in East Asian countries with similar climates. (C) 2014 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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