Predicting Survival of Congenital Diaphragmatic Hernia on the First Day of Life

초록

Background: This study aimed to determine perinatal risk factors for 30-day mortality of congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) patients and develop a prognostic index to predict 30-day mortality of CDH patients. Identifying risk factors that can prognosticate outcome is critical to obtain the best management practices for patients. Methods: A retrospective study was performed for patients who were diagnosed with CDH from November 2000 to August 2016. A total of 10 prenatal risk factors and 14 postnatal risk factors were analyzed. All postnatal variables were measured within 24h after birth. Results: A total of 95 CDH patients were enrolled in this study, including 61 males and 34 females with mean gestational age of 38.86 +/- 1.51weeks. The overall 30-day survival rate was 63.2%. Multivariate analysis revealed that five factors (polyhydramnios, gestational age at diagnosis < 25 weeks, observed-to-expected lung-to-head ratio <= 45, best oxygenation index in 24h >11, and severity of tricuspid regurgitation >= mild) were independent predictors of 30-day mortality of CDH. Using these five factors, a perinatal prognostic index for 30-day mortality was developed. Four predictive models (poor, bad, good, and excellent) of the perinatal prognostic index were constructed, and external validation was performed. Conclusions: Awareness of risk factors is very important for predicting prognosis and managing patients. Five independent perinatal risk factors were identified in this study. A perinatal prognostic index was developed for 30-day mortality for patients with CDH. This index may be used to help manage CDH patients.

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