A global epidemiological analysis of COVID-19 vaccine types and clinical outcomes

Abstract

Objectives To compare messenger RNA (mRNA)–based and adenovirus-vectored vaccines (ADVVs) with inactivated virus vaccines (IVVs) using real-world aggregate data.

Methods We performed longitudinal analyses of publicly accessible epidemiological, clinical, virological, vaccine-related, and other public health data from 41 eligible countries during the first half of 2021. The relationships between vaccination coverage and clinical outcomes were analyzed using repeated measures correlation analyses and mixed-effects modeling to adjust for potential mediating and confounding factors.

Results Countries that used mRNA and/or ADVV (n = 31) vs IVV, among other vaccine types (n = 10), had different distributions of age (42.4 vs 33.9 years, respectively; P-value = 0.0006), gross domestic product per capita ($ 38,606 vs $ 20,422, respectively; P <0.0001), and population sizes (8,655,541 vs 5,139,162, respectively; P-value = 0.36). After adjustment for country differences, the stringency of nonpharmaceutical interventions, and dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant types, populations that received mRNA and/or ADVV had significantly lower rates of cases and deaths over time (P <0.001 for each analysis). Populations vaccinated with IVV, among others, had significantly higher rates of cases and deaths over time (P <0.05 for each analysis).

Conclusion The real-world effectiveness of IVV may be inferior to mRNA and/or ADVV, and prospective comparative studies are needed to critically evaluate the role of IVV in the context of contemporary SARS-CoV-2 variants.