Validation of Risk Prediction Models for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in a Prospective Korean Community-Based Cohort
- Authors
- 배재현; 문민경; 오소희; 구보경; 조남한; 이문규
- Issue Date
- Jun-2020
- Publisher
- 대한당뇨병학회
- Keywords
- Atherosclerosis; Calibration; Cardiovascular diseases; Cohort studies; Epidemiology; Primary prevention; Risk assessment; Risk factors
- Citation
- Diabetes and Metabolism Journal, v.44, no.3, pp 458 - 469
- Pages
- 12
- Indexed
- SCIE
SCOPUS
KCI
- Journal Title
- Diabetes and Metabolism Journal
- Volume
- 44
- Number
- 3
- Start Page
- 458
- End Page
- 469
- URI
- https://scholarworks.korea.ac.kr/kumedicine/handle/2020.sw.kumedicine/28329
- DOI
- 10.4093/dmj.2019.0061
- ISSN
- 2233-6079
2233-6087
- Abstract
- Background: To investigate the performance of the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) in a large, prospective, community-based cohort in Korea and to compare it with that of the Framingham Global Cardiovascular Disease Risk Score (FRS-CVD) and the Korean Risk Prediction Model (KRPM).
Methods: In the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study (KOGES)-Ansan and Ansung study, we evaluated calibration and discrimination of the PCE for non-Hispanic whites (PCE-WH) and for African Americans (PCE-AA) and compared their predictive abilities with the FRS-CVD and the KRPM.
Results: The present study included 7,932 individuals (3,778 men and 4,154 women). The PCE-WH and PCE-AA moderately overestimated the risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) for men (6% and 13%, respectively) but underestimated the risk for women (−49% and −25%, respectively). The FRS-CVD overestimated ASCVD risk for men (91%) but provided a good risk prediction for women (3%). The KRPM underestimated ASCVD risk for men (−31%) and women (−31%). All the risk prediction models showed good discrimination in both men (C-statistic 0.730 to 0.735) and women (C-statistic 0.726 to 0.732). Recalibration of the PCE using data from the KOGES-Ansan and Ansung study substantially improved the predictive accuracy in men.
Conclusion: In the KOGES-Ansan and Ansung study, the PCE overestimated ASCVD risk for men and underestimated the risk for women. The PCE-WH and the FRS-CVD provided an accurate prediction of ASCVD in men and women, respectively.
- Files in This Item
- There are no files associated with this item.
- Appears in
Collections - 2. Clinical Science > Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism > 1. Journal Articles
Items in ScholarWorks are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.