Quantitative Prediction of Posttransplant Hepatocellular Carcinoma Prognosis Using ADV Score: Validation with Korea-Nationwide Transplantation Registry Database

Abstract

Objective The aim of this study is to validate the prognostic impact of ADV score (α-fetoprotein [AFP]–des-γ-carboxyprothrombin [DCP]–tumor volume [TV] score) for predicting prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) following liver transplantation (LT).

Background ADV score has been reported as a prognostic surrogate biomarker of HCC following LT and hepatectomy.

Methods The study patients were 1599 LT recipients selected from the Korean Organ Transplantation Registry database.

Results Deceased-donor and living-donor LTs were performed in 143 and 1456 cases, respectively. Weak correlation was present among AFP, DCP, and TV. The viable HCC group showed ADV score-dependent disease-free survival (DFS) and overall patient survival (OS) rates from 1log to 10log (p<0.001). Prognosis of complete pathological response group was comparable to that of ADV score <1log (p≥0.099). ADV score cutoff of 5log (ADV-5log) for DFS and OS was obtained through receiver operating characteristic curve analysis with area under the curve ≥0.705. Both ADV-5log and Milan criteria were independent risk factors for DFS and OS, and their prognostic impacts were comparable to each other. Combination of these two factors resulted in further prognostic stratification, showing hazard ratios for DFS and OS as 2.98 and 2.26 respectively for one risk factor and 7.92 and 8.19 respectively for two risk factors (p<0.001). ABO-incompatible recipients with ADV score ≥8log or two risk factors showed higher recurrence rates.

Conclusions This validation study revealed that ADV score is a reliable surrogate biomarker for posttransplant HCC prognosis, which can be used for selecting LT candidates and guiding risk-based posttransplant follow-up surveillance.